PREDICTION OF VARIATIONS OF SALES PRICES AND RENTAL BENEFITS IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET 

Uchinina Tatyana Vladimirovna, candidate of economical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of expertise and real estate management, Penza State University of Architecture and Construction (28 Germana Titova street, Penza, Russia), E-mail: tatiana-Vladim@yandex.ru 

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Subject and goals. he article describes the method of forming a “corridor” of the values of the market value and the cost of renting commercial real estate on the market in a given forecast period. To determine the specified range of values, an analysis of the retail real estate market is necessary, while the period for retrospective analysis of sales prices and rental rates must be long enough for at least three years, which will make it possible to draw reliable conclusions about fluctuations in values and discard those that are outside the average range values. The aim of the study is to form the prospects for the development of a retail property market based on the determination of the range of fluctuations in market value and rental rates.
Materials and methods. As applied research methods used approaches based on the use of forecasting, economic-mathematical, technicaleconomic, logical analysis. The basis for the formation of a “corridor” of the market value and rental value was an array of information on rental rates and sales prices in the retail real estate market of Penza, grouped by periods from 2013 to 2014, from 2015 to 2016. and from 2017 to 2018.
Results. The results of the calculation of the average probability of the relative increase (decrease) in prices for the sale and rental of commercial real estate, the variance of these indicators are presented; standard deviation of the values of indicators; optimistic and pessimistic expectations of indicators.
Conclusions. Extreme expected values of the price fluctuation indicator in the retail real estate market are of practical importance for operational monitoring and comprehensive assessment of the achievement of goals in the management of commercial real estate, as well as in management decisions when disposing of commercial real estate or leasing them. 

commercial real estate, retail real estate market, forecast, market value, rental price, price fluctuation, sale, rent